Government with Slender Lead as Election Year Concludes

As 2018 draws to a close, support for the Liberal State Government has remained close to the level recorded in the previous EMRS poll in August 2018, with it still holding only a slender lead over the Labor Party on primary vote.

After excluding undecided voters, the Liberal State Government support now stands at 39 per cent, an increase of 3 points since the last August 2018 poll, while the Labor opposition saw an increase of just 1 point since August with support now at 35 per cent.

The latest poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults was conducted from the 15th to the 17th of December after the last sitting days for 2018 of the State Parliament.

“The increase in support for the Government from 36 per cent to 39 per cent is only a slight upward movement in the last 4 months. Nonetheless, it is the first reversal of the downward trend in support since the March 2018 election” said Samuel Paske (EMRS Chief Operations Director).

“Furthermore, with support for Labor remaining virtually unchanged at 35 per cent currently, it has become apparent that the Opposition has not been able to make substantial gains post election, nor the Greens whose support at 14 per cent is down 2 points since August. Support for independents or other minor parties has also shown little change, down marginally by 2 points to 12 per cent since August 2018.

The latest poll shows that voter preferences regarding their choice for Premier remain in line with those in the previous August poll. Premier Will Hodgman again does not hold the lead in the preferred Premier rating, recording 40 per cent in this latest poll compared to 38 per cent in August, while support for Rebecca White as the preferred option remains unchanged at 46 per cent.

Mr Paske said, “These December results reveal that Rebecca White has maintained her lead over Will Hodgman as preferred Premier in the past 4 months, as she did in August and December of 2017 pre-election. Overall, this finding, as well as the latest support levels for the parties, indicate that Tasmanian voters are not currently inclined to realign their preferences.”

You can view the full report here.